The recent announcement by President Donald Trump to impose tariffs on various countries has sent shockwaves through global markets, including our own. As an Australian investor, it's natural to feel concerned about how these changes might affect your investments. Here's a straightforward guide to help you manage this challenging period.
Understanding the Tariffs
President Trump recently escalated his tariff strategy, raising tariffs on Chinese goods to an unprecedented 125%, while temporarily reducing "reciprocal" tariffs to 10% for countries that have not retaliated against the United States. This marks a dramatic intensification of the US-China trade war, with China responding by imposing an 84% tariff on American goods, further straining global trade relations. Australia remains subject to a 10% tariff, which is the lowest level imposed by the Trump administration, reflecting its relatively small trade imbalance with the US.
Impact on Australian Markets
The Australian stock market, like many others, has experienced significant volatility following the tariff announcement. The ASX 200 index initially suffered substantial losses but managed to recover some ground by the end of the trading session. This volatility is a reminder that markets can be unpredictable, especially during times of global economic uncertainty.
Managing Your Investments
Keep Calm and Avoid Panic Selling
It's essential to remember that market downturns are a normal part of investing. Panic selling during these periods can lock in losses and prevent you from benefiting when the market recovers. Historical data shows that investors who remain invested during downturns often fare better than those who try to time the market.
Diversify Your Portfolio
Diversification is key to managing risk. Ensure your investments are spread across different sectors and asset classes. This can help mitigate the impact of any single sector experiencing difficulties due to the tariffs.
Consider Defensive Strategies
In times of market uncertainty, defensive investments can provide stability. Consider allocating a portion of your portfolio to quality dividend-paying stocks or consumer staples, which tend to be less volatile during economic downturns.
Seek Professional Advice
If you're unsure about how to manage your investments, consider consulting a financial adviser. They can provide personalised advice tailored to your financial goals and risk tolerance.
The Australian Dollar and Interest Rates
The Australian dollar has depreciated against the US dollar in recent times, reflecting broader market concerns about global economic stability. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia has kept interest rates steady at 4.1%, awaiting clearer signs that inflation is returning to target levels. This decision reflects the central bank's cautious approach to managing economic uncertainty.
Other countries have also voiced strong disapproval. China has vowed to implement "determined countermeasures" against the U.S., viewing the tariffs as an act of "unilateral intimidation". The European Union, facing a 20% tariff, has pledged to adopt a collective stance and prepare counteractions if negotiations with the U.S. fail. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned that the tariffs would lead to increased uncertainty and serious repercussions for millions worldwide. Meanwhile, Canada and other nations are considering their own retaliatory measures to protect their economies. This global backlash underscores the potential for a broader trade conflict that could have far-reaching economic implications.
Conclusion
While the current market situation is challenging, it's important to maintain a long-term perspective. By staying informed, diversifying your investments, and avoiding emotional decisions, you can manage these uncertain times effectively. Remember, market volatility is temporary, and history shows that markets have consistently recovered from downturns.
As an investor, staying calm and seeking professional advice when needed will help you make the most of your investments, even in the face of global economic challenges. Please feel free to contact us for tailored advice.
The 2025 Australian Federal Budget, announced by Treasurer Jim Chalmers on 25 March, outlines the government’s plans for the next financial year. While budget documents can be overwhelming, here’s a simplified look at the key changes that might impact your finances.
Income Tax Changes
The government has introduced new tax cuts to help ease the cost of living. From 1 July 2026, the tax rate for income between $18,201 and $45,000 will drop from 16% to 15%, and then to 14% in July 2027. For someone earning in this bracket, this means an extra $268 in your pocket by 2026 and up to $536 by 2027.
The table below summarises the proposed personal income tax rates and thresholds:
Taxable Income ($)
2024–25 & 2025–26 (%)
2026–27 (%)
2027–28 (%)
0 – 18,200
0
0
0
18,201 – 45,000
16
15
14
45,001 – 135,000
30
30
30
135,001 – 190,000
37
37
37
190,001+
45
45
45
While these cuts may seem small, they’re part of a broader effort to reduce taxes over time. Additionally, the Medicare levy low-income thresholds are going up by 4.7%, which could benefit lower-income earners.
However, Economist Peter Swan dismissed the tax cuts as a “complete joke,” arguing they won’t offset declining living standards.
Healthcare, Education, and Childcare
Healthcare is getting a boost with increased funding for bulk billing and cheaper medicines under the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS). Starting January 2026, PBS medicine costs will drop to $25 per prescription.
For students, there’s good news: a 20% reduction in outstanding student debts and an increase in the repayment threshold to $67,000 from July 2025. This means you’ll start repaying your loans later and owe less overall.
Childcare is becoming more accessible with the introduction of a "3 Day Guarantee" from January 2026. Most families will qualify for at least three subsidised days of childcare each week—no activity test required.
Energy Relief
The government has extended its energy bill relief program with an additional $1.8 billion commitment. This extension ensures that every household and around one million small businesses will receive rebates to help manage rising energy costs. Specifically, each eligible household and small business will get $150 in rebates, distributed as two payments of $75 each, over the second half of 2025.
Superannuation
The superannuation guarantee rate will increase to 12% from July 2025, helping Australians save more for retirement. Another change is “Payday Super,” which will require employers to pay super at the same time as wages starting July 2026. Super contributions will also apply to Paid Parental Leave for babies born after July 2025.
Also, the Budget reaffirmed its plan to implement a tax on superannuation balances over $3 million.
Housing Affordability
The "Help to Buy" scheme is expanding, allowing eligible buyers to access government equity contributions of up to 40%. A two-year ban on foreign investors buying established homes begins in April 2025, aimed at freeing up housing stock for locals.
Conclusion
The budget introduces measures like tax cuts, cheaper healthcare, student debt relief, childcare subsidies and energy relief designed to ease financial pressure on households. Initiatives around housing and superannuation aim for long-term benefits.
How much these changes affect you depends on your personal situation—whether it’s your income level, family needs, or housing plans. Please feel free to contact us if you would like to have a chat.
Retirement is a significant chapter in life, offering the chance to enjoy the fruits of your hard work. But what does a comfortable retirement look like, and how can you prepare for it? For many people, it’s about finding the right balance between financial security, personal fulfilment, and peace of mind. Here’s how you can start shaping your ideal retirement.
What Does Retirement Mean to You?
Retirement is different for everyone. For some, it’s about travelling the world or buying a beachside home. For others, it’s spending more time with family, pursuing hobbies, or volunteering. The first step is to picture what your perfect retirement looks like. Ask yourself:
Do I want to downsize my home or stay where I am?
How often do I want to travel?
What hobbies or activities will I focus on?
Will I need to support family members financially?
By answering these questions, you’ll have a clearer idea of what you’re working towards.
Taking Stock of Where You Are
Once you know what you want, it’s time to assess your current situation. This includes:
Superannuation: Check your balance and whether it’s on track for your goals.
Savings and Investments: Consider any shares, property, or other assets you own.
Debts: Work out what you owe and how quickly you can pay it off before retiring.
This step helps you understand the gap between where you are now and where you need to be.
Building a Comfortable Retirement
A comfortable retirement isn’t just about money—it’s about having the freedom to live life on your terms. Here are some key areas to focus on:
Financial Security
The cornerstone of any retirement plan is ensuring you’ll have enough income to cover your needs and wants. This might come from superannuation, investments, rental income, or part-time work.
Health and Wellbeing
Staying healthy means enjoying more of what retirement has to offer. Think about private health insurance, regular check-ups, and setting aside funds for unexpected medical costs or aged care later in life.
Lifestyle Choices
Whether it’s learning a new skill, joining a club, or travelling interstate to see loved ones, having a plan for how you’ll spend your time is just as important as financial planning.
Making the Most of Australia’s Retirement System
Australia has a robust system designed to support retirees, but understanding how to use it effectively is key:
Superannuation: Make extra contributions if possible—it can make a big difference over time thanks to compound growth.
Age Pension: Learn whether you’re eligible and how much support you could receive.
Self-Managed Super Funds (SMSFs): If you prefer more control over your superannuation investments, this might be an option worth exploring with professional advice.
Creating an Income That Lasts
One of the biggest challenges in retirement is ensuring your money lasts as long as you do. A good plan balances regular income with long-term growth while accounting for rising living costs over time (inflation). You might consider:
Drawing down from superannuation gradually rather than in one lump sum.
Keeping some investments in growth assets like shares or property to outpace inflation.
Setting up an emergency fund for unexpected expenses so they don’t disrupt your plans.
Planning for Life’s Curveballs
No one likes to think about getting older or needing care, but planning ahead can save stress later on:
Research aged care options early so you know what’s available if needed.
Ensure your will and estate plans are up-to-date to make things easier for loved ones when the time comes.
How a Financial Adviser Can Help
Planning for retirement can feel overwhelming at times—but you don’t have to do it alone. A financial adviser can help by:
Clarifying your goals and creating a personalised plan to achieve them.
Helping you navigate complex systems like superannuation and pensions.
Offering strategies to protect your savings from inflation and market changes.
Giving peace of mind that someone is keeping an eye on your finances as life evolves.
Start Today — Your Future Self Will Thank You
The earlier you start planning for retirement, the easier it will be to achieve the lifestyle you want. Whether you’re just beginning to think about retirement or are only a few years away, now is the time to act.
Speak with our team of trusted financial advisers who understand your goals and can guide you through every step of the process.
Retirement isn’t just about stopping work—it’s about starting the life you’ve always dreamed of!
As Australia steps into 2025, there's a careful sense of hope about the economy. Last year was tough, with slow growth and high prices, but things are looking up. Economic growth is forecast to improve, supported by easing interest rates, stabilising inflation, and rising household incomes. However, challenges such as cost-of-living pressures and labour market uncertainties remain in play. For investors, this presents unique opportunities in the property and dividend markets.
The Property Market: Riding the "Super Cycle"
Australia's housing market is rebounding strongly in 2025, driven by structural supply-demand imbalances and rate cuts. Experts describe this as a "super cycle," characterised by population growth, shifting demographics (e.g., smaller households), and construction delays. These factors are pushing property prices higher across most regions, except for Darwin and parts of regional Victoria.
Key Trends: Standalone houses are outperforming apartments, particularly in coastal areas, middle suburbs like Geelong and Wollongong, and regions such as Northern NSW and Southeast Queensland. Melbourne stands out as a value market after a 3.2% price drop last year, with outer suburbs like Craigieburn and Tarneit showing strong growth potential.
Risks: Oxford Economics warns that affordability could become a pressing issue as wages fail to keep pace with rising prices. Additionally, migration growth, which has supported housing demand post-COVID, is slowing but remains buffered by limited supply.
Takeaway: Investors should prioritise properties with scarcity value or those in undervalued markets like Melbourne. Regional hotspots such as Byron Bay and the Sunshine Coast also offer promising returns.
Dividend Investing: Beyond Chasing Yield
While term deposits and bonds now outyield the ASX 200’s average dividend yield of 3.5%, dividends remain a cornerstone of investment strategies when total returns are considered. In recent years, high-dividend indices have consistently outperformed broader market benchmarks due to their combination of income and capital gains.
Performance Trends: Mining companies like BHP have reduced payouts due to weaker commodity prices, but sectors such as retail (Wesfarmers, Coles) and travel (Qantas) have increased dividends.
Total Returns Matter: For example, a $10,000 investment in the ASX 200 in 2022 generated $383 in dividends by 2024 but achieved a total return of 13% when capital gains were included.
Takeaway: Focus on total returns by blending high-dividend stocks with growth sectors like technology or healthcare. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) such as BetaShares’ High Yield ETF (ASX: ZYAU) provide diversified exposure to high-dividend companies.
Balancing Your Portfolio in 2025
Given the mixed economic signals this year, portfolio strategies should be tailored to individual risk appetites:
For Conservative Investors: Leverage low interest rates to invest in houses within growth corridors while targeting defensive dividend sectors like utilities or healthcare.
For Growth-Oriented Investors: Explore speculative property opportunities in rezoning areas like Melbourne’s outer suburbs or reinvest dividends into emerging sectors such as artificial intelligence or renewable energy.
Conclusion
Australia's economic recovery in 2025 offers both opportunities and challenges for investors. The property market’s super cycle provides fertile ground for strategic investments in undervalued or high-growth areas. Meanwhile, dividend investing remains essential for building wealth but requires a focus on total returns rather than yield alone. Diversifying across asset classes will be key to managing risks while capitalising on this year’s unique investment landscape.
To ensure your investment strategy aligns with your unique financial goals and risk tolerance, it's essential to seek personalised advice. Personalised investment management can significantly enhance your portfolio's performance by tailoring it to your specific needs, preferences, and circumstances. Research by Vanguard shows that personalised investment advice can add up to 3% in net returns over time. If you're looking to optimise your investments in property and dividends, consider reaching out to us for expert guidance. Our team can help you create a customised plan that not only maximises returns but also ensures your financial decisions are aligned with your long-term objectives.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has made a significant move by cutting interest rates for the first time in over four years, reducing the cash rate from 4.35% to 4.10% in February 2025. This decision offers welcome relief to mortgage holders, and with the possibility of further rate cuts later this year, many are now considering how to make the most of this change. Here’s a straightforward guide to help you decide your next steps.
1. Understand Your Mortgage Type
If you’re on a variable-rate loan, your lender will likely pass on the rate cut sometime this month (if not the end of last month), reducing your monthly repayments. Contact your bank or check your banking app to confirm when the lower rate takes effect. For those with fixed-rate loans, however, your repayments won’t change unless you refinance. This could be worth exploring if lenders start offering sharper deals later in the year.
2. Explore Refinancing Opportunities
Banks often compete to attract borrowers after a rate cut. This means you might secure a lower rate or even cashback incentives by switching lenders. Keep in mind that refinancing costs, such as exit or application fees, can add up. Use comparison tools online to weigh your options, but don’t rush — waiting a few months could yield better terms if the RBA cuts rates again.
3. Stay Flexible
If you expect more cuts, avoid locking into long-term fixed rates right away. Variable loans let you benefit from future reductions, while splitting your loan (part fixed, part variable) balances stability and flexibility.
4. Use the Savings Wisely
A lower repayment frees up cash, but how you use it matters. Consider:
Paying down your mortgage faster: Keep paying what you did before the cut to reduce your loan’s principal.
Building savings: Park extra funds in an offset account or high-interest savings account.
Clearing high-interest debt: Prioritise credit cards or personal loans, which cost far more than mortgage interest.
5. First-Time Buyers: Proceed with Care
Cheaper borrowing costs might tempt you to enter the property market. While lower rates improve your loan capacity, remember that housing prices could rise if demand surges. Research local trends thoroughly and ensure you can afford repayments even if rates climb back up.
6. Plan for Uncertainty
Rate cuts are not guaranteed. Global economic shifts, stubborn inflation, or stronger wage growth could prompt the RBA to pause or reverse course. Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser has cautioned households to expect a cautious approach from the RBA, with any future rate cuts likely to be gradual and limited in scale. Unlike the aggressive reductions seen during the pandemic in 2020, the RBA is treading carefully to avoid reigniting inflation, which remains a key concern. Build a financial buffer to protect yourself against unexpected changes.
7. Look Beyond Your Mortgage
Lower rates can lift share and property markets. If you’re comfortable with risk, consider investing spare cash in diversified assets like ETFs or rental properties. Historically, REITs, and quality growth stocks often rally in falling-rate environments. Always align choices with your long-term goals.
Final Word
The RBA’s rate cut is a welcome shift for households, but its true value lies in how you use it. Whether you prioritise debt reduction, savings, or investments, thoughtful planning will help you stay ahead. It is always wise to budget conservatively and avoid overcommitting to debt, even as borrowing costs ease.
If you’re unsure about your options, please be sure to reach out to us. Professional guidance can tailor these strategies to your unique circumstances.
The S&P/ASX 200, Australia's benchmark stock index, has experienced a turbulent February, with the index currently sitting at 8,251.90 as of 25 February 2025. This represents a decline of 1.75% or 147.20 points over the past month, reflecting a challenging period for Australian equities.
Source: Google Finance
The ASX 200 began the month on a positive note, climbing from around 8,400 on 3 February to reach a peak of approximately 8,550 by 5 February. However, this optimism was short-lived, as the index experienced a sharp drop to about 8,350 by 7 February.
In a display of resilience, the market rallied once more, touching another high of roughly 8,550 on 12 February. Unfortunately, this second peak marked the beginning of a gradual decline that has persisted through the latter half of the month.
Several factors have contributed to the ASX 200's lacklustre performance in February:
Global Tech Jitters: The local market has been influenced by nervousness on Wall Street, particularly in the tech sector. Investors have been cautious ahead of Nvidia's highly anticipated earnings report.
Disappointing Earnings: The Australian earnings season has delivered some high-profile disappointments, weighing on investor sentiment. For instance, AMP Ltd, an ASX 200 financial stock, saw its shares plummet by 22.9% this month following poor full-year results.
International Trade Concerns: US President Donald Trump's announcement of new tariffs on Mexico and Canada, set to commence next month, has added to market pressures.
Banking Sector Weakness: Key players in the banking sector, including Westpac, Bendigo Bank, and NAB, have provided disappointing trading updates, contributing to a broader weakness in financials.
Commodity Price Pressures: Lithium and coal stocks have continued to struggle due to weak commodity prices and operational challenges.
The market's performance has varied significantly across different sectors:
Industrials: Companies like Brambles have reached 52-week highs, buoyed by strong earnings and improved guidance.
Materials: This sector has faced challenges, with companies like Mineral Resources experiencing significant share price declines due to operational issues and increased capital expenditure forecasts.
While the ASX 200 has faced headwinds in February, it's worth noting that the index remains up 1.57% since the beginning of 2025. Analysts at Trading Economics expect the index to trade at 8,428 points by the end of the first quarter of 2025, suggesting some potential for recovery in the near term.
USA – S&P 500
The S&P 500, America's benchmark stock index, has experienced a volatile February, with the index currently standing at 5,983 as of 24 February 2025. This represents a modest decline of 0.48% or 29.03 points over the past month, reflecting a challenging period for US equities.
Source: Google Finance
The S&P 500 kicked off the month near the 6,000 mark and quickly gained momentum, reaching a peak of approximately 6,050 by 3 February. However, this initial optimism was short-lived, as the index experienced a dip to around 6,000 by 10 February.
Showing resilience, the market rallied once more, touching a new high of roughly 6,100 on 18 February. Unfortunately, this second peak marked the beginning of a decline that has persisted through the latter half of the month, bringing the index down to its current level of 5,983.
Several factors have contributed to the S&P 500's choppy performance in February:
Economic Data Concerns: Fresh economic data has raised worries about the health of the US economy, leading to increased market volatility.
Sector Performance Variations: Different sectors have shown varied performance, with some, like healthcare, showing strength while others, such as consumer discretionary, have faced significant challenges.
Financials: Demonstrated resilience with a 0.67% increase.
Consumer Discretionary: Faced significant challenges, declining by 0.47%.
Technology: Experienced a slight dip of 0.38%.
As we approach the end of February, several key events could shape the market's direction:
Nvidia Earnings: The market is eagerly anticipating Nvidia's earnings report, scheduled for release on 28 February, which could significantly impact tech sector sentiment.
Fed's Inflation Report: The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, set to be released on Friday, could influence expectations about future monetary policy.
US Q4 GDP Revision: Thursday's revision of the fourth-quarter GDP figures may provide further insights into the economy's health.
While the S&P 500 has faced headwinds in February, it's worth noting that the index remains in positive territory for the year. However, investors should remain cautious given the ongoing global economic uncertainties and the mixed performance across different sectors of the US market.
As always, a diversified investment approach and careful consideration of individual company fundamentals remain vital in these challenging market conditions. With key economic data and earnings reports on the horizon, market participants will be closely watching for signs of both the S&P 500’s and ASX200's directions in the coming weeks.
The Residential Property Market
The Australian residential property market has started 2025 with a mix of stability and subtle shifts, reflecting ongoing affordability challenges, economic uncertainty, and regional growth. Here’s a detailed look at the key updates from January to February 2025 based on the most recent CoreLogic report.
National Trends
Dwelling Values: National home values remained largely stable in January, dipping slightly by 0.03%. This follows a year of strong growth in 2024, with the annual growth rate slowing to 4.3% in January 2025, down from 9.7% a year earlier.
Capital Cities vs Regional Areas: Capital cities experienced a 0.2% decline in dwelling values, while regional markets outperformed with a 0.4% increase, reaching record highs. This trend highlights the continued appeal of regional areas due to affordability and lifestyle factors.
Declines: Melbourne (-0.6%), Canberra (-0.5%), and Sydney (-0.4%) recorded the most significant drops in January.
Growth: Brisbane and Perth continued to see price increases, although the pace of growth has slowed compared to previous months.
Flat Markets: Hobart showed no change in dwelling values during January.
Regional Markets
Regional Australia continued to shine:
Dwelling values rose by 0.4% in January, driven by increasing demand for affordable housing and lifestyle benefits outside major cities.
Regional Victoria was the only regional market to see a decline (-0.15%) in January4.
Rental Market
The rental market remains tight:
The average national rental asking price as of early February was $718 per week for houses and $557 for units.
Affordability pressures continue to impact renters, with vacancy rates remaining low in many areas.
Property Listings
Total property listings increased by 10.3% nationally in January, reaching 243,642 properties. Canberra led this rise with a 30.7% increase.
The number of older listings (properties on the market for over 180 days) also rose by 7.2%, reflecting slower sales activity in some areas.
Market Drivers and Outlook
Several factors are shaping the property market:
Interest Rates: The Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) decision on interest rates on February 18 (more on this in the following section) is expected to influence buyer confidence. A potential rate cut could boost borrowing capacity and drive price growth later in the year.
Affordability Challenges: High property prices and limited income growth have strained affordability, particularly in capital cities.
Regional Migration: Continued internal migration to regional areas is supporting demand outside metropolitan markets.
Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide are expected to remain strong performers due to relative affordability and population growth.
In summary, while the national property market has stabilised early in 2025, regional areas are outperforming capital cities as buyers seek more affordable options. The outlook for the rest of the year will depend heavily on interest rate movements and broader economic conditions.
Inflation and Interest Rates
In a significant move, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut interest rates for the first time in over four years, reducing the cash rate from 4.35% to 4.10%. This decision, announced on 18 February 2025, marks a turning point in Australia's monetary policy and reflects the central bank's response to easing inflationary pressures.
The RBA's decision to cut rates comes after a prolonged period of restrictive monetary policy aimed at curbing inflation. The central bank's assessment suggests that some of the upside risks to inflation have eased, and disinflation might be occurring more quickly than previously expected. However, the RBA remains cautious, acknowledging that easing policy too much too soon could stall the disinflation process.
Governor Michele Bullock admitted that the RBA may not have raised interest rates quickly enough when inflation began to increase in mid-2021. This time, the RBA appears to be taking a more proactive approach, providing relief to borrowers before inflation definitively returns to the target band. This decision was made despite concerns about inflation and the strong Australian jobs market, which could drive wage growth and inflation.
The inflation outlook has improved significantly since late 2024. The Melbourne Institute's Inflation Gauge reported a 0.7% rise in underlying inflation for the December quarter. However, this marks a continued slowdown in inflationary pressures since March 2024, suggesting an environment that may support interest rate cuts.
However, the RBA staff's detailed economic analysis presented a more cautious view. Their report highlighted that the battle against inflation is far from over, suggesting a case for waiting for more concrete evidence before implementing rate cuts. The staff specifically noted the tightness of the labour market, the risk of firms pre-empting future productivity increases by demanding higher wages, and the possibility of wage growth moderating at a slower pace than desired.
The rate cut is expected to provide some relief to borrowers. All major banks will pass on the full 0.25% rate cut to variable home loan customers.
For savers, the outlook is mixed. While lower interest rates generally mean reduced returns on savings accounts, some banks are maintaining competitive rates on term deposits. CBA, for instance, is continuing its 10-month term deposit special at 4.60% p.a. for a limited time.
The rate cut is expected to stimulate economic activity by making borrowing more affordable. However, the RBA's approach remains cautious, with the central bank emphasising that monetary policy will remain restrictive even after this reduction. The aim is to achieve a more sustainable balance between demand in the economy and its overall capacity to supply goods and services.
While this rate cut marks a significant shift, economists are divided on the future path of interest rates. Some predict further cuts throughout 2025, with CBA forecasting a total reduction of 100 basis points over the year. However, other major banks, including ANZ and NAB, have pushed back their estimates for the next rate cut to May 2025. The coming months will be vital in determining whether this rate cut marks the beginning of a sustained easing cycle or a more measured approach to monetary policy adjustment.
The ASX 200, Australia's benchmark stock index, has shown a robust performance in January 2025, demonstrating resilience and growth amidst global economic uncertainties. As of 29 January, the index stands at 8,421.50, marking a significant 2.26% increase (+186.50 points) over the past month.
Source: Google Finance
The index kicked off the year around the 8,150 mark and has steadily climbed throughout January. This upward trajectory wasn't without its challenges, however. Mid-month, around 13 January, the market experienced a noticeable dip, with the index dropping close to 8,200. This temporary setback might be attributed to global economic factors or specific Australian market conditions.
Despite this brief downturn, the ASX 200 demonstrated remarkable resilience. The market swiftly recovered, embarking on a steady ascent that saw it surpass the 8,400 threshold towards the month's end. This recovery and subsequent growth likely reflect positive investor sentiment and favourable economic indicators.
Several factors may have contributed to this positive trend. The technology sector, influenced by U.S. spending plans on artificial intelligence infrastructure, has shown strength. This global tech optimism seems to have spilled over into the Australian market, potentially driving some of the growth.
However, it's worth noting that the ASX 200's performance isn't uniform across all sectors. While tech stocks have rallied, major mining and banking sectors have faced some challenges. The mention of potential tariffs on China by U.S. President Trump has particularly impacted mining stocks, highlighting the interconnected nature of global markets.
USA – S&P 500
While the ASX 200 has shown robust performance, its American counterpart, the S&P 500, has also demonstrated remarkable strength in January 2025. As of 28 January, the S&P 500 closed at 6,067.70, marking a significant 2.72% increase (+160.76 points) over the past month.
Source: Google Finance
The S&P 500's journey through January has been characterised by an overall upward trend, albeit with notable fluctuations. The index kicked off the year around 5,900 and has steadily climbed above the 6,000 mark. This ascent, however, wasn't without its challenges.
Early January saw a slight initial decline, followed by a quick rebound that pushed the index near 5,950 by 6 January. The market then faced a significant hurdle mid-month, with a notable dip around 13 January that brought the index close to 5,820. This temporary setback might be attributed to profit-taking or concerns about potential changes in US economic policies.
However, the S&P 500 demonstrated remarkable resilience, staging a strong recovery in the latter half of the month. The index surged upward, reaching a peak above 6,100 around 24 January. This robust performance can be largely attributed to the technology sector, particularly companies involved in artificial intelligence (AI).
However, the market's enthusiasm for AI stocks also led to some volatility. Concerns about the rise of Chinese startup DeepSeek and its potential impact on the AI sector caused a sharp downturn in tech stocks towards the end of the month. Nvidia, for instance, experienced a significant drop, losing nearly $600 billion in market capitalisation in a single day.
Despite these fluctuations, the S&P 500 has maintained its upward trajectory. The index's performance has been bolstered by strong economic data, with US growth remaining resilient despite high borrowing costs. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points in December, bringing the target range to 4.25% - 4.50%, has provided further support to the market.
Looking Ahead
Market analysts offer varied predictions for both the ASX 200 and S&P 500 in 2025. For the ASX 200, Morgan Stanley forecasts the index to reach about 8,500 points by year-end, while Dr Shane Oliver from AMP Ltd predicts a climb to 8,800 points, albeit with potential volatility. For the S&P 500, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson has set a year-end target of 6,500, implying a modest increase of around 7% from current levels.
These forecasts, combined with January's performance, paint a picture of cautious optimism for both markets in 2025. While both indices have shown strength, investors should remain mindful of potential headwinds, including global trade tensions, interest rate policies, and sector-specific challenges.
As we move further into the year, market participants will be keenly watching how these trends develop. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on 30 January will be important in shaping market sentiment, particularly regarding the Fed's outlook on future rate cuts.
Additionally, investors will be closely monitoring how global economic factors and technological advancements, especially in AI, continue to influence both Australia's and America's premier stock indices.
In conclusion, both the ASX 200 and S&P 500 have demonstrated resilience and growth in January 2025. As global markets continue to navigate economic uncertainties, the performance of these indices will likely remain intertwined, reflecting the increasingly interconnected nature of international financial markets.
The Residential Property Market
The Australian residential property market ended 2024 on a softer note, with national home values recording their first decline in almost two years. This shift marks a turning point in what has been a surprisingly resilient period of growth amidst high interest rates and cost of living pressures. Let's review some of the significant highlights from the January 2025 CoreLogic HVI report.
Overview of Home Values
CoreLogic's Home Value Index (HVI) reported a -0.1% decline in national home values for December 2024, dragging the quarterly change into negative territory. This modest decline brought the annual growth for 2024 to 4.9%, adding approximately $38,000 to the median value of a home across Australia.
Sydney and Melbourne: Both cities experienced declines, with Sydney values dropping -0.6% and Melbourne -0.7% in December.
Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth: These mid-sized capitals continued to show strength, with Perth leading annual growth at 19.1%, followed by Adelaide at 13.1% and Brisbane at 11.2%.
Hobart, Darwin, and Canberra: Hobart and Canberra saw slight declines, while Darwin managed a small increase.
Regional Markets
Regional housing markets finished the year more robustly than their capital city counterparts, with values up 6.0% over the year compared to 4.5% across the combined capitals. Regional areas of Western Australia, South Australia, and Queensland showed particularly strong performance.
Rental Market
The rental market also showed signs of cooling, with the national rental index up just 0.1% in December and 4.8% over the calendar year. This represents the smallest December quarter rise in rents since 2018, likely due to reduced net overseas migration and ongoing rental affordability challenges.
Looking Ahead
As we move into 2025, several factors are likely to shape the property market:
Interest Rates: Financial markets are anticipating potential rate cuts in 2025, which could bolster housing demand. According to ASX cash rate futures, a 25-basis point cut is fully priced in by April, with expectations of 77 basis points worth of cuts throughout the 2025 calendar year.
Migration: Net overseas migration is expected to wind down further, potentially easing rental demand.
Housing Supply: The shortage of newly built housing is likely to persist through 2025, potentially supporting housing values.
Affordability: There's potential for improved housing affordability in 2025 as value growth stalls and incomes rise. After a marked deterioration in housing affordability in 2024, several factors could contribute to improvement:
Income growth outpacing growth in housing values
Anticipated reduction in interest rates
Stabilisation or potential decrease in rents
Lower cost of living pressures providing additional capacity for housing
While the start of 2025 may be soft, the year could see varied conditions across different markets. The potential for interest rate cuts and changes in macroprudential policies will be key factors to watch. Macroprudential policies are a set of financial regulations that aim to keep the financial system stable. A common example is Debt-to-income restrictions which imit the amount a household can borrow relative to their income.
Overall, the Australian residential property market is showing signs of moderation after a period of strong growth, with regional variations continuing to play a significant role in market dynamics.
Inflation and Interest Rates
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has maintained the cash rate at 4.35% since December 2024, continuing its cautious approach. This decision comes as inflation shows signs of easing, with consumer inflation expectations falling to 4% in January, down from 4.2% in December 2024. In other words, people expect prices to rise by about 4% this year, which is less than they thought before.
The most recent official data, from Q3 2024, showed the annual inflation rate had dropped to 2.8%, while the trimmed mean CPI (which is thought to provide a better signal of the underlying inflation trend) stood at 3.5% year-on-year. Although still above the RBA's 2-3% target range, this represents the softest increase in nearly three years.
The Australian Dollar's Decline
The Australian dollar has become a bit cheaper compared to other currencies, especially the US dollar. It's now worth about 61.5 US cents, which is quite a drop of about 10%. If we look at it relative to our exports to other countries, the decline is less severe at about 5%.
This means it's more expensive for Australians to buy things from overseas, but it might help our exports because they're cheaper for other countries to buy. What this means for Australians:
Shopping: Imported goods might become a bit pricier, but local products might not change much.
Travel: Overseas holidays could be more expensive, but Australia might attract more tourists.
Savings and Loans: Interest rates on savings accounts and loans are likely to stay about the same for now.
Economic Outlook and Predictions
Despite the falling dollar, ANZ Research has brought forward its forecast for the first interest rate cut to February 2025, citing softer-than-expected inflation data. Major banks have varying predictions for rate cuts in 2025, with Commonwealth Bank being the most optimistic.
The labour market continues to show resilience, which could potentially influence the RBA's decision-making. However, the RBA is likely to focus more on whether inflation is decreasing quickly enough and on labour market data, rather than the exchange rate.
Conclusion
As Australia navigates these economic waters, the interplay between interest rates, inflation, and currency value remains complex. While the falling Australian dollar presents challenges, its impact on inflation and interest rates may be less significant than initially feared. The RBA's upcoming decisions will be closely watched as it balances the need to control inflation with supporting economic growth.
